by Marco Bellassai –
Donald Trump keeps assuring he would put an end to the war in Ukraine within 24 hours if elected. When asked how, he refused to answer though. Is he believable or not?
What Ukraine means to America.
Let’s start from a premise. A nation’s foreign policy basically has one main goal. Making its own interests. A leader going against the needs of his own nation would be senseless. It is the basis of every foreign policy. Every leader works to pursue that goal. “Charity” does not exist when it comes to foreign policy. Despite controversial, Trump is still a proud American wanting American interests defended. Then, why should he help Russia?
Being an isolationist would not explain that. American interests in Ukraine are huge. Besides, Ukraine is the key to helping America have some of its troops removed from Europe (a known Trump’s goal). To have that done, not letting Russia expand is the priority indeed. Having Ukraine down would make no sense for the USA and Trump. What would the pros be?
Time for peace.
Nevertheless, it is evident American support for the Ukrainian cause cannot stay the same. Too high is the economical price to pay for a continuous military help. Which is not leading to any “total victory” as hoped. On the other hand, America does not even want to force the situation too much. Having a direct war with Russia would be lethal. Not wanted either by the Americans or the Russians.
Russia has obviously failed his campaign in Ukraine at the beginning. Continuing the war, the situation has improved with Russian troops advancing constantly within Ukrainian territory in the last few months. But a “total victory” is not possible for Russia either. Ukraine is not going to become another Belarus (fortunately).
That means a military solution is not possible for either of them. The time for diplomacy has almost come. Ukrainian and Russian governments finally seem to understand that. Still, American elections are going to have a strong impact on the war. Not by any chance, the war will likely not be over by then. To the Democrats, it would probably be harder to make compromises (despite the new candidate for presidency) after Biden saying America will support Ukraine “As long as it takes”. Trump might be a key in this sense.
Trump’s plans.
His advantage is to have no promise to keep with Ukraine. Such as the one of supporting Ukraine’s membership in NATO (which may be not happening anyway). A point Zelensky will likely have to accept. Having reached a deal, Trump could promote the idea he was the man who made Putin and Zelensky talk and ended the war. As promised (even though not in 24 hours).
Nonetheless, a deal is not going to be reached by letting Russia have the best of Ukraine. Compromises are needed from both sides. If Russia does not renounce some of its ambitions, peace will not be possible. Trump is not going to stop financing Ukraine at least until Russia compromises. Same reasoning for Zelensky. The new President might push more on him to force new negotiations. Threatening to stop financing Ukrainian cause, but hardly doing that.
Besides, several analysts claim Trump (if elected) plan on adopting a more aggressive foreign policy against what he considers (rightly) America’s main enemies: China, Russia and Iran. That would imply the fact he would not have a soft approach towards Russia (as some expect him to do) and he would not be disposed of compromising on many points during a possible negotiation.
The United States will do their part. Are we ready for ours?
Therefore, European and Ukrainian politicians can feel safe. America is not going to leave Ukraine alone and is not letting Russia threaten European security. Too many interests are at stake for the USA. America is (probably) going to provide for Ukrainian’s military needs as long as the war is going on. No matter the result of the elections in November. It is going to make a compromise with Russia and put an end to the war. At that point, Ukrainian’s reconstruction is mostly going to be on us (Europe). But that is another story.
